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Hedging free was the way to go in Q3




PI Financial Corp


08 Nov 2013





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EARNINGS UPDATE November 08, 2013 BLACKPEARL RESOURCES INC. (T-PXX) $1.82 RATING: BUY TARGET: $3.00 (unchanged) (unchanged) Hedging free was the way to go in Q3 VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION: Our investment thesis on PXX is not built around quarterly CF. Blackpearl should be owned for its large and very high quality assembled oil sands opportunity base – again offering the potential for ten-fold increase over current volumes. We reiterate our BUY recommendation, $3.00 target and SPECULATIVE risk rating. (The basis of our valuation is provided within.) Company Statistics Risk: SPECULATIVE Potential Return: 64% Basic Shares OS: 296.1MM F.D. Shares OS: 315.9MM Market Capitalization: $542MM 52-Week Range: $3.46/$1.36 30 Day Ave Trading Volume: 348,818 Enterprise Value: $554M Financial Summary (FYE Dec 31) FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e Oil (US$/bbl) $95.11 $95.15 $98.00 $90.00 Gas (US$/MMbtu) $4.03 $2.83 $3.75 $3.75 Heavy Oil (bbl/d) 7,403 9,032 9,300 9,600 Gas (Mcf/d) 960 374 1,500 2,400 Boe/d (6:1) 7,536 9,094 9,550 10,000 Cash Flow (MM) $76.7 $81.6 $82.8 $91.9 Net Debt Y/E (MM) -$37.8 $7.8 $9.3 $58.1 NAVPS (Engineering) $8.23 Price/NAVPS 47% EV/P+P Reserves (boe) $2.56 EV/Production (boe/d) $66,257 $60,116 $57,708 $59,657 EV/DACF 6.3x 4.7x 6.1x 5.9x Target Implied EV/DACF 10.5x 11.0C 10.0x 10.1x Corporate Information BlackPearl is a heavy-oil biased producer pursuing both cold-flow and thermal extraction initiatives in both Alberta and Saskatchewan

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