Analyst Research Report Snapshot

Title:

華晨中國 (1114 HK, HK$13.8, 持有): 評級由「增持」調降至「持有」

Price:

$46.00

Provider:

KGI Greater China

Date:

08 Nov 2013

Pages:

6

Type:

AcrobatPDF

Companies referenced:

1114.HK

Available for Immediate Download
Summary:

研發費用認列延後至4季度 3季度華晨寶馬獲利比凱基預估高40%以上,因大部分研發費用延後至4季度認列 2013年預估稀釋後每股收益上修2%至0.64元人民幣,因前3季利潤超預期; 2014年預估稀釋後每股收益下修1%至0.79元,因先前的銷量預估過於激進,且產品組合轉向不利 由於4季度研發費用認列、2014年產品組合轉向不利,利潤率隱憂浮現; 根據14倍2014年預估市盈率,目標價調升至14.10港元,隱含2%上檔;評級調降至「持有」 華晨寶馬處於快速成長軌道之上,動力來自中國的豪華車強勁需求和公司積極的產能擴張計劃。繼我們8月發佈更新報告,上調評級以來,公司股價上漲近30%。但目前來看,多數正面因素已反映。展望未來,4季度研發費用集中認列,且2014年產品組合轉向側重小型車,市場對利潤率的擔憂浮現。我們首次採用2014年的估值,將12個月目標價由12.80港元上修至14.10港元,根據的是凱基14倍2014年市盈率(先前為2013年16倍)。14倍的目標市盈率,相當於華晨中國三年曆史前瞻市盈率平均,估值應屬合理。新的目標價根據昨日收盤價13.80港元,隱含上檔空間2%,下調投資評級至「持有」。

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