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Adobe (ADBE): review of 3Q13 10-Q new data




Griffin Securities, Inc.


07 Oct 2013





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We review the incremental data and comments in the 3Q13 10-Q filing, especially for subscription and product revenues, cost of revenues, currency effects, and acquisition accounting. In Charts 1 and 2, we show the actual, and our projected, results for recurring revenues by source and for Creative ARR (annualized recurring revenues) and subscribers. We are estimating year-end FY15 ARR of $2.4 billion, vs. an estimated $745 million for FY13, with estimated Creative Cloud GAAP revenues of more than $1.2 billion by FY15. Table 1 shows the contribution of Digital Marketing subscription revenues, still the majority of total subscription revenues, plus other sources. We are reiterating our Buy rating.

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