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ADSK: analysis of rendezvous with rentals (Sept 2013)




Griffin Securities, Inc.


11 Sep 2013





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Autodesk has expanded the number of products available for rental, including, as expected, its several leading suites configurations. According to the software rental plans website there are now 15 products available for rental with U.S. pricing; the foreign currency pricing should become available in the next several days. In Table 1 we show the current periodic and perpetual pricing by suites configurations and standalone product. In Table 2 we show our comparative analysis of the “breakeven” periods for monthly, quarterly, and annual rentals vs. the equivalent of a new perpetual license plus 3 years of maintenance. These data help provide a basis for considering the effects or parameters of the model evolution though we are not yet estimating the precise shape of the revenue shift. Our basic premise remains however that, especially for a high-volume, high-market share software supplier, a move to high ratability will over a period of years induce incremental revenues, including higher revenues per license/customer, higher margins and higher cash flow, and, therefore, a better valuation.

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