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TD Power (TDPS) - Qtr. Update - Dated - August 12, 2013




Axis Capital Limited


13 Aug 2013





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TD Power’s (TDPS) reported ~ 50% YoY decline in Q1 revenue to Rs 730 mn. As a result, there was loss of Rs 30 mn at EBITDA level (profit of Rs 140 mn in Q1FY13). PAT was supported at Rs 50 mn (64% YoY decline) due to higher other income. However, management maintained its manufacturing guidance of Rs 4 bn in FY14, with recovery being back ended in H2. Confidence of achieving guidance stems from traction in exports which form 37% of pending order book of Rs 2.8 bn. FY14 Revenue outlook from other segments remain weak with, 1) EPC likely to remain flat YoY at Rs 1.6 bn (order book Rs 3.5 bn), and 2) projects business expected to decline ~ 60% YoY to Rs 500 mn due to lower order booking. Valuation We CUT our FY14 and FY15 estimates due to weak demand outlook and downgrade our rating to SELL (vs HOLD earlier). Our revised TP of Rs 187 implies downside of 17% from CMP of Rs 227. The stock trades at ~ 20x FY14E EPS of Rs 11 (Rs 16 earlier) and 15x FY15E EPS of Rs 16 (Rs 21 earlier). Regards, Kashyap Pujara (ED – Midcaps) Institutional Equity Research Axis Capital Limited Tel: +91 22 4325 1146

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