United States

Analyst Research Report Snapshot


ADBE: revising FY13E-FY14E; initiating FY15E; raising PO




Griffin Securities, Inc.


19 Jun 2013





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The trajectory of Adobe’s transition to more recurring revenue continues to steepen. While the intermediate effects are materially suppressing reportable revenues in FY13, we expect positive comparisons for Digital Media to resume as early as 1Q14. We are modestly raising our FY13E, slightly reducing our FY14 estimates to reflect some incremental transition effects, and we are initiating an FY15E. We estimate Adobe will finish FY14 with a Creative ARR of more than $1.1 billion and FY15 with an ARR of more than $2.1 billion, vs. $356 million as of 2Q13. We are revising our price objective to $55 from $48, set in March 2013. Adobe’s 2Q13 results exceeded our estimates, including upside in Digital Marketing, Document Services, and the addition of new subscribers. We are reiterating our Buy rating.

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