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NTPC Ltd. | Q4FY13 Result Update




IndiaNivesh Securities Pvt Ltd


10 May 2013





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NTPC Ltd. In line with our expectation NTPC reported Q4 FY13 numbers (Standalone) in line with our expectation. Revenue increased by 1% y-o-y and 4% Q-o-Q to Rs. 164.61 bn, however, adjusted revenue (excluding prior period sales and recovered tax) stood at 163.53 bn in line with our expectation of Rs.163.45 bn but lower than consensus of Rs. 170.23 bn. The company produced 60.27 billion units (flat Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q) and offtake was 56.37 bn vs. 56.07 bn in Q4FY12. Coal based PLF was 88% in Q4FY13 (vs 86% Q3FY13 and 91% Q4FY12) while Gas based PLF was 42.45% (vs 58.8% Q3FY13 and 67% Q4FY12). Average realization stood at Rs. 2.90/unit vs. Rs. 2.80/unit in Q4FY12. Reported PAT increased by 69% y-o-y to Rs 43.81 bn on the back of exceptional gains of Rs.16.84 bn (on account of interest paid by Delhi electricity board on dues payment) and higher other income. However, Adjusted PAT (After excluding the impact of exceptional item and higher other income comes at Rs. 25.37bn (vs. our expectation of Rs. 25.92 bn and consensus of Rs 26.30 bn). EBITDA margin improved 190 bps y-o-y and 215 bps q-o-q to 27.6% mainly by lower fuel cost and higher other operating income. NTPC achieved its FY13 commissioning target of 4.2GW. In FY13, NTPC added capacity of 4.10GW (v/s 2.82GW in FY12 and 2.5GW in FY11) and commercialized capacity of 4.8GW (v/s 1.2GW in FY12 and 1.5GW in FY11). We expect that the company to reap the benefit of higher commercialization of the projects in coming quarters. Valuation: NTPC is well placed in terms of fuel security due to the preference it gets in domestic coal supply and ability to pass through hike in fuel costs. We expect the company to register CAGR of 12-15% in its top line due to huge capacity addition in next two years. At the CMP of Rs. 154, NTPC is trading at 1.50xFY14E BV lower than of historical average book value of 2.2x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 194.

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