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ACC Ltd. | Q1CY13 Results Update




IndiaNivesh Securities Pvt Ltd


05 May 2013





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ACC Ltd. | Q1CY13 Results Update Bad set of numbers, tax credits push up the PAT Q1CY13 Results Update: ACC reported a top-line of Rs 29.1 bn (vs. our expectation of Rs 31.2 bn). The reported top-line numbers reflect 2.9% y-o-y decline and 8.2% q-o-q increase. The reported top-line numbers reflect 4.5% y-o-y fall (and 9.2% q-o-q increase) in dispatches to 6.42 mn tonnes and 1.6% y-o-y increase (and 0.9% q-o-q decline) in average blendid realizations to ~Rs 4,534/ tonne. Average blended realizations continued to decline for the second consecutive quarter (vs. Rs 4,577/tonne in Q4CY12 & Rs 4,682/tonne in Q3CY12). Outlook & Valuation: At CMP of Rs 1,230, ACC is trading at CY14E & CY15E EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.4x & 8.5x, respectively. Alternatively, ACC is trading at CY15E, EV/tonne of ~$135. Given the current scenario of weakened demand (as can be seen from decline in dispatch numbers) and scope for further price correction in the average blendid realizations (with monsoons ahead), we expect overall profitability of the company to be under pressure in the near-term. With tough times to continue we do not expect ACC to get re-rated upwards from here-on.

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