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IBM - Company Profile - No Blip. Worse expected.




Indigo Equity Research


21 Apr 2013





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Investment thesis - Weak EPS expected In summary, IBM has had strong EPS growth since 2004, but this looks set to end shortly. Falling revenues now exacerbates this and indicates declining competitive positioning. Weak Q1 2013 results - The fundamentals deteriorate The critical issue was a 5% drop in revenues; ….. IBM's explanation for weak revenues did not appear candid and the proposed fixes appear inadequate. This does not look like a blip, but indicates fundamental problems. ….. We re-iterate our negative view of IBM held for the last 6 months (see our Q4 report "Heading for a fall" and "Investment Thesis" below). We expect EPS to stall or decline as past drivers run out of steam and weak revenues exacerbates problems. This c. 40 page report includes: SWOT analysis, investment thesis, fundamental & DCF valuation, significant recent events, operations analysis, ten year financial analysis, business model, strategy, industry overview, analysis of latest Q results, …. Independent, buy-side, fundamental, financial analysis. www.indigo-equity-research.com

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