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Spark Capital - Auto Sector: Feb 2013 'Auto'psy - Nowehere to hide; Weak trends across the board




Spark Capital Advisors(India) Private Limited


14 Mar 2013





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Spark Capital – Auto Sector: Feb 2013 ‘Auto’psy – Nowhere to hide; Weak trends across the board Commercial Vehicles: Domestic MHCVs (including ICV) goods category continued with its weak performance, posting a 37.3% yoy decline in February. The decline was primarily led by higher tonnage categories; > 25T rigid vehicles posted a 57% yoy decline while the 7.5-12T vehicles declined 22% yoy. YTD February, volumes declined 25.4% yoy. LCV goods segment growth tapered down to ~8% yoy growth in February as YTD growth came in at 16.5%. Within the LCV segment, 2-3.5T segment has been the key driver posting 76% growth YTD while < 2T and 3.5 – 7.5T segments declined 1% and 23% YTD respectively. Ashok Leyland saw the largest improvement in market share across the board and VECV’s market share rose in ICVs; while Tata Motors has seen declining market share across the board. Passenger cars: Passenger Car volumes declined 25% yoy in February, steep fall compared to 4% fall YTD. Higher than average decline was primarily driven by a high base as February 2012 saw strong growth driven by pre-buy effect. In the entry hatch back segment, Alto and Wagon R maintained market share (YTD) at 42% and 21% respectively vs. FY12, while the Eon has driven market share increase to 21% YTD (vs. 17%) for Hyundai in this segment. Premium hatchback segment continued to see Swift & Ritz gaining market share at the expense of i10, i20 and Indica. Dzire saw a steep market share jump in the entry and mid sedans segment, while Etios and Vento saw the steepest fall. Utility Vehicles: UVs remain the strongest segment posting a ~35% yoy growth in February and 54% yoy growth in March. Sub 4.4m and 4.4 – 4.7m together account for ~95% of domestic UV volumes. Sub 4.4m segment was up 121% YTD on the back of newly launched Quanto, Ertiga and Duster. 4.4m – 4.7m segment (up 22% YTD) was primarily driven by XUV500 and new Innova. Growth in this segment has tapered down with February recording a 1% decline on the back of a high base last year. Two-wheelers: Domestic volumes declined ~3% yoy in February as motorcycles declined 4.5% and scooters rose 2.5%. YTD two-wheeler volumes rose 4% driven by 16% growth in scooters and less than 1% growth in motorcycles. Within motorcycles, 100-125cc segment grew 30% yoy, while 125-150cc declined 21%. Segmenting motorcycles based on brand positioning, entry segment witnessed 9% growth YTD, while premium segment declined 1.7% yoy. In the entry segment, CD Dawn recorded 27% growth YTD in the entry segment, while Platina remained flat and TVS Max & Star declined 13%. In the executive segment, HMSI doubled volumes on the back of newly launched Dream Yuga, Discover recorded low single digit volume growth, while Splendor declined 13%. JLR volumes: JLR wholesale volumes rose 10% yoy driven by 68% growth in Jaguar. However, retail volumes for Jaguar rose lower at 27%. The difference we believe is probably driven by inventory filling of newer variants (AWD and smaller engines). Region wise, China witnessed a 22% fall yoy primarily driven by the new year holidays in February vs. January last year.

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