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Coal India (COAL) - Qtr. Update - Dtd. - February 14, 2013




Axis Capital Limited


14 Feb 2013





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Coal India’s Q3 EBITDA at Rs 51 bn (flat YoY) was in line with our estimate. Adjusted PAT was Rs 44 bn, up 9% YoY. Volume growth momentum was maintained with 9% YoY growth (volume sales of 120.5 mnt). This was primarily led by improvement in rake availability (up 10% YoY). Rake availability for Coal India has been improving, as iron ore exports have reduced post various curbs across key iron ore producing states. Rake availability at 214/day in February 2013 is 12% higher from average in Q3, which will drive volume growth in Q4 as well. Average realization for the quarter was Rs 1,438/ton (flat QoQ and up 3% YoY). However, average e-auction realization improved 20% QoQ to 2,940/ton. E-auction sales volume during the quarter was 10.5 mnt (9% of total volumes vs. 10% in Q2FY13). Maintain estimates, BUY rating We retain our EPS estimates for FY13 and FY14 at Rs 26 and Rs 29 respectively. Maintain BUY with Mar ’14 DCF-based target price of Rs 434 (25% upside from CMP of Rs 348). Regards, Jagdishwar Toppo (Executive Director – Materials) Institutional Equity Research Axis Capital Ltd Tel: +91 22 4325 1103 Nitesh Jain (Sr VP – Materials) Institutional Equity Research Axis Capital Ltd Tel: +91 22 4325 1145 Sujan Sanisetty (Asst VP – Materials) Institutional Equity Research Axis Capital Ltd Tel: +91 22 4325 1122

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